A Glimmer of Hope: analysts see hope in downbeat market data

HMRC says UK residential transactions in March totalled 89,560 - that’s a chunky 19 per cent lower than the same month a year ago.

However the figure is one per cent above the February 2023 total.

Some analysts see a glimmer of hope in this data released over the weekend.

Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter, says: “Despite the current economic conditions, including the high cost of living, rising interest rates, and unaffordable mortgages, these latest figures hint at a slight steadying of the housing market.

“While a slight uptick may at first glance appear to be the start of a return to a more buoyant market, interest rates hikes are yet to be put on pause. 

“If the Bank of England opts to increase them again at the MPC meeting in May, we could see a further dip in transactions as more pressure is placed on people’s finances. 

“House prices have been slowly declining in recent months, reflecting the decreased level of demand, and should transactions remain subdued then we can expect them to fall further as sellers compete for buyers.

“Mortgage rates are expected to fall throughout the year, but if inflation remains sticky and the Bank of England opts to hike rates, we could see some lenders increase their mortgage rates once more. However, competition between lenders will likely keep any rises much lower than the highs witnessed at the end of last year.”

And Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, comments: “We saw a bump in the number of property sales in March, as thousands of buyers bought into the usual flurry at the start of spring. However, this wasn’t a spectacular bounce. 

"There are some positives in the numbers, but nothing to bet the house on. There’s some hope to be gleaned from the fact that even in this market, spring is working some of its magic – and before the figures are seasonally adjusted, there’s a significant rise in sales. 

“It means homeowners with well-priced properties stand a decent chance of selling. We also know that mortgage approvals for the coming months rose in February, so it could mean there’s some hope for April too.

“However, this is far from a bumper spring selling season. The seasonally-adjusted figures remove the impact of seasonal trends. Without them we had a shocking January, a worse February, and a very marginal improvement in March – which was still the worst March in a decade.”

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