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What Happens To Rents after a General Election?

Rent prices tend to rise in the 12 months immediately after a General Election, by an average of 1.96%, according to a new analysis of elections over he past 20 years.

The study - by comparison service Compare My Move - says that on average, rent prices rise by 0.9% more under a Labour government than a Conservative government.

On the sales side, house prices rose the most (3.4%) 12 months after the 2015 General Election, in which the Conservatives and David Cameron won a majority. 

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House prices rise an average of 2.3% when the general election ends in a majority, compared to only 1.4% when ending in a hung parliament.

A spokesperson for Compare My Move says: “Rents have seen a significant rise over the past few years, with an increase in the average rent price of almost 9% in the 12 months up to February 2024, therefore they go into the election at an all-time high. However, many parties have focused on helping renters in their manifestos, and therefore I don’t think the rise will continue at this rate, and will become more gradual in the 12 months after the election.”

What The Parties Say About Renting:

Labour - Much like many other parties, Labour has promised to abolish Section 21 if they win the 2024 General Election in their attempts to overhaul the regulations in the private renting sector. Abolishing Section 21 will stop ‘no fault’ evictions, which will increase security for renters in the private sector. They will also extend ‘Awaab’s Law’ to the private sector, increasing the standards landlords need to keep to rent out properties.

Conservatives - The Tories also continue on a promise to introduce a renters reform bill and abolish section 21 and ‘no fault evictions’, however, they state that they will do so while introducing a ‘three strikes and you’re out’ policy which will allow social housing landlords to evict tenants that are disrupting the local community.  They also state that they will “strengthen other grounds for landlords to evict their private tenants guilty of anti-social behaviour” to soften the blow of the abolishing of section 21, but do not state what these other grounds are.

Liberal Democrats - The Liberal Democrats will also be abolishing no-fault evictions and go further to aid renters by making three-year tenancies the default in an attempt to lower the reliance on short-term lets, this issue will also be devolved more so local authorities can have more control over short-term lets. They will also establish a national register of licensed landlords in England, which will allow tenants to know more about their landlord's history before they start renting with them, as well as require landlords to submit all of their checks and certifications. As well as the national register, the Liberal Democrats will fully recognise tenant panels and give renters a voice in landlord governance.

Reform UK - This manifesto is a lot more brief on property than other manifestos, but what it says about renting is also a lot more favourable to landlords than other manifestos. Reform UK promise to scrap section 24 for landlords, meaning landlords will be able to deduct finance and mortgage interest costs from their tax on rental income and give landlords more take-home pay. Reform UK will also abandon the Renters Reform Bill and will instead “boost the monitoring, appeals and enforcement process for renters” but do not delve into specifics.

Green Party - The Green Party Manifesto is also brief when it comes to renting and housing in general. In the housing section of their manifesto, they do focus on making the rental market fairer for renters and will push for rent controls, meaning that local authorities can lower rents if the rental market becomes unaffordable for local people. Greens will bring an end to no-fault evictions and aim to make rental tenancies more stable for renters. They will also introduce a private residential tenancy board, which will be an informal, cheap, and quick way to resolve any tenancy disputes before they reach a tribunal. 

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    Rents are likely to rise because we are still playing catch-up with our mortgage rates rises. Unlike mortgage lenders we can't just increase rent by £700 pcm in one hit. We have to spread it over several years. The variable is how much those rises will need to be.

    The only party with policies that would minimise rent increases is Reform. Scaping Section 24 would take a huge amount of pressure off landlords to sell. Some would decide to continue if their properties suddenly became profitable again. All landlords are influenced by Section 24, not just those who are directly impacted by it. Market rent is directly affected by Section 24 and most landlords use market rent to base their rents on.
    The other party policies will minimise supply with their obsession with abolishing Section 21. Landlords will be very cautious about expanding portfolios until the new reality beds in. Some will sell up at the earliest opportunity. Simple supply and demand economics will dictate rent rises.

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    Jo: Spot on as usual.

     
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    You are quite right. Those with mortgages have to increase rents over several years, in the meantime we have to cover the shortfall from our own savings or by selling a property, which is what I am doing. Using capital gain (after GCT of course) to cover mortgage interest payment isn't really right though.

     
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    • A S
    • 27 June 2024 11:07 AM

    If by some miracle Reform win, then I will seriously look at investing in more property again. If, as expected, Labour win then I'm comfortable having sold in the last year and will sell more when tenants vacate in the coming years. That, quite simply, is the reality for the majority of small landlords.

    The likes of Generation Rent, Shelter etc know this. They do a huge disservice to the people they claim to represent.

     
  • George Dawes

    You can ignore the lib democrats, theyre so irrelevant they make the monster raving looney look electable

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    • A S
    • 27 June 2024 11:09 AM

    The Lib Dems may end up with less votes than Reform but more MPs, such is our electoral system.

    If that happens, Ed Davey is the Leader of the opposition! We'll see his face (and stupid antics) plastered all over our TV screens for the next 5 years. God help us.

     
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    The Lib Dems were predicted to have more seats than the Tories in whichever poll I was reading earlier.
    In my constituency it's a different prediction every day. It's been Conservative for years but last week different newspapers were predicting Reform, Labour and Conservative. This week it's supposed to go Lib Dem.

     
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    A S
    Perhaps if Ed "the talking horse" Davey does become leader of the opposition, he will find the cajones to appear before the Post Office Inquiry?

     
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    Hey, don't knock the Monster Raving Loony party, they are probably more sane than the rest of them.

    "We are fighting this Election on the basis of CHANGE..

    LOOSE CHANGE as this is all we’ll have left under a Labour/Conservative Government

    The Loony Party will build 5 million new homes, fill up 5 million potholes, employ 80,00 teachers, policemen and NHS staff and reduce taxes to 5%……….yeah right…lol

    MP’s will have to sit in stocks during their surgeries, while their constituents throw custard pies at them. This will help them judge their popularity with in the community. Companies would also be encouraged to design new versions of stocks to trade at the Stock Exchange.

    Rwanda…We will send all MPs who misbehave to Rwanda.

    V.A.T….We will get rid of VAT as it adds no value.

    Fly Tipping..We will ban all tipping of flys, insects, and zips of any kind..

    Immigration..We will replace employees of the Border Force with GP receptionists. This will dramatically reduce the number of people getting in.

    Cost of Living…To help with the cost of Living and to raise money for the Treasury we will Convert Numbers 10 and 11 Downing Street into a Hair salon, Which we will call ‘Government CutZ’. "

    Etc.......

     
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    Rents will go up whatever, as we all know supply will be simply going down ⬇️

  • Sarah Fox-Moore

    Well where appropriate, my rents are going up by 5.3%

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    Yeah, we've put off raising rents until this year - after the covid thing. But all we can see is having to accept double cost mortgages, and that would leave properties with low or negative cashflow. So, prices will go up for a few years.
    What I just don't understand is why Landlords are the bad actors here, when its the banks and lenders who pulled the carpets from under us - and like any other business all we do is pass on costs.

     
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    I suspect Labour will introduce a rent freeze so rents won’t be rising!

  • Gone Girl

    If the Bank of England does cut rates in August there will be an immediate expectation that rents should drop. But with the spectre of rent caps and licenses and all the other pile-on costs the government gleefully heap on the PRS, that just isn’t going to happen. Sections 21 and 24 legislation mean BTL isn’t an attractive investment now for an army of small landlords that make up the majority so supply will at best stagnate - demand will be high and so will rents.

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    Mortgages are fixed for 5 years so there is no expectation that rent should be linked to interest rates. It will take years to recoup the extra some of us have been paying on any recent fixes. We still have 2 or 3 years of low fixes remaining on other properties but need to prepare for whatever mortgage rates may be doing when those fixes end. We were caught unawares by the speed and magnitude of increases over the last 2 years and are unlikely to make the same mistake again.

     
    Gone Girl

    So true Jo, and the inconvenient fact that high fixed mortgages have a long time to run will be overlooked. As soon as rates come down and rents don’t, this will be paraded as more proof of how unaccountability greedy we all are.

     
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    If only we got as much of the rent as the mortgage lender or the government. It's crazy that we're portrayed as being greedy when the government get more of it as tax than we keep as income.

     
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    As I have mentioned before on this site I have been very relaxed with rent increases to good long-standing tenants. Because I have seen the writing on the wall with Scotland for example I have for the first time instituted rent increases all round in expectation of rent freezing and rent control. I have also sold off three flats. When my existing tenants leave of their own accord I shall sell. Notice I say “of their own accord” as I have not been issuing Section 21’s. The activists and politicians would have you believe this is what landlords do and is the cause of the housing crisis. THEY are the cause of the housing crisis. We have an ever increasing population but no infrastructure to meet it.

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    Margaret, I'm putting up my rents this year for sitting tenants for the first time ever. I normally only do it when re letting a house.

    I know some of them can not afford it and are already struggling. You cant get blood out of a stone, so for now some will have to stay the same.

     
  • Richard LeFrak

    After the election the rents will be going up annually, by at least 3%. First batch is in September.

    Thank Polly/Ben/Ben/Gove/Craw/Raynor and Local Councils for that.

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    • A S
    • 27 June 2024 11:11 AM

    Why wait until after the election, Richard? If a rent freeze is implemented on July 5, you'll have missed the boat. Do you want to gamble on that happening? Do you feel lucky?

     
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    Why 3%? I tend to look at how much Social rents were increased in April and work from there. This year it was up to 7.7%. Most authorities go for the maximum allowed.

    I try to keep self funding tenants increases a bit lower than the Social percentage increase because it's easy to justify as being a good deal. Market forces are now restricting some increases. HMOs seem to be more impacted by that than self contained units.
    As AS says, Why wait until after the election? If a miracle happens and Reform win you could always change your mind about the magnitude of the increase. No tenant is going to be upset if you decide to cancel a 6% increase and replace it with a 2% increase.

     
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    • A S
    • 27 June 2024 11:14 AM

    Every landlord should put in a rent rise to the maximum possible amount within the next 6 days to every single tenant. Together with a written note explaining the reasons why, because of the incoming Labour Government.

    And then have a verbal conversation with each tenant to explain that in the event of a Reform win, the rent rise may not be necessary and there is scope that the rent rise letter could be rescinded.

    I wonder what actions tenants will take next Thursday armed with this information.....

  • icon

    Like Jo has said, I am playing catch up with the mortgage increases. I am coming up to the second round of annual rent increases. I have good long term tenants but am increasing rents close to 10%. I am still well below market rents and trying to prepare for the worse, possible rent freezing and rent controls etc.

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    Not time to read many of the comments yesterday just catching up on some a couple of regular subscribers missing.
    Anyway its clear Mr Gove got the Bill title wrong I suppose its an easy mistake to make when you are cheating the Tenants it’s really THE RENTERS DE-FORM BILL.
    I’am too far behind with low rent to even consider catching up unless a 50% increase is acceptable for most and that would still be a very competitive rent.
    Now Ben Gove Polly Ben Shelter Rayner Acorn Mr Local authority why do you not appreciate how much we Subsidise our Tenants. 👍

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