Tax Cuts - what should we expect in Wednesday's Budget?

Like a parent whose kids expected half term in Disneyland, Jeremy Hunt is spending the week managing expectations – and crushing dreams. 

He doesn’t have as much space for tax cuts in the Budget as had been expected, so he faces some difficult choices. And like any parent set to endure a week-long staycation, he can expect widespread dissatisfaction.

It's worth bearing in mind that there’s an awful lot the Budget could achieve, even without significant tax cuts. 

Hunt could make a major difference to people’s long-term prospects with moves like tweaking the Lifetime ISA rules to enable people to open and pay in for longer, and withdraw cash without losing any of their own money.

He could boost investment by increasing the ISA limit, and offer details on plans for lifetime pensions. And he could help transform people’s financial resilience by offering a clear timetable for vital changes like the extension of auto-enrolment and clarity on the advice/guidance barrier. 

However, he needs to be careful not to announce changes that could introduce needless complexity – like a British ISA.

Income tax or NI cut - Initially the government had floated the idea of a 2p income tax cut. Given the cost involved, this is looking distinctly unlikely. Instead, Hunt could opt for a smaller 1p cut, and he might choose to cut National Insurance rather than income tax, on the grounds that it’s cheaper.

Inheritance tax cut - This particular kite has been flown more times than a Mary Poppins prop, with a cut to the main rate in the frame this time round. There’s every chance that this will be considered a cut too far at a time like this, especially given that it’s only paid by around 4% of estates. There’s also the risk it could reduce the incentive to give gifts across the generations during our lifetimes, so we may well see this shelved.

Income tax thresholds move - Unfreezing tax thresholds – including income tax – is a rank outsider, but it shouldn’t be forgotten that failing to increase these thresholds is an active choice, and one that is costing us a small fortune in income tax. One potential option, which could be cheaper, is a move to smooth the cliff edges, so you don’t suddenly have more tax to pay when you cross a threshold.

High income child benefit charge change - Depending on how far the £50,000 threshold moved, this could be a popular option without breaking the bank. At the moment, once one parent earns £50,100, they have to start paying child benefit back, and once they make £60,000 they need to return it all. It’s why the effective tax rate between these two figures is 60%. One in eight families are hit by this now, so a move in the threshold to reflect inflation in the interim could be popular.

Capital gains tax and dividend tax thresholds hold - The capital gains tax and dividend tax thresholds are set to be halved again in April, taking them to miserly levels (£3,000 and £500 respectively), and making it incredibly difficult for investors and entrepreneurs to plan tax-efficient income and gains outside an ISA or pension. It will make it even more essential to make as much use of your allowances as makes sense for your finances, to protect yourself from the relentless northward creep of both these taxes.

Stamp duty cut - Cutting stamp duty on property was always going to be tricky, because we’re in the middle of a stamp duty holiday at the moment. Making that holiday permanent wouldn’t make people feel any richer, so to have an impact Hunt would have to go further, which would be an expensive move when he has such little fiscal headroom to manoeuvre within.

Fuel duty cut - This is something of a hygiene factor. There won’t be much of a reaction if Hunt keeps the 5p fuel duty cut that was meant to be temporary, or if he freezes the fuel duty instead of hiking it as scheduled. However, if he doesn’t do either, it’s going to hit motorists hard, and leave a large number of voters out of pocket. The freeze wasn’t priced into the autumn statement maths – which raises the risk it will be ditched – however, there’s a chance Hunt left it out in the hope the maths would alter in his favour between then and now. He could find himself with little alternative than to keep duty where it is for now.

* Sarah Coles is head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown * 

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